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DAILY UPDATES. BELOW: MY TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN OF THE S&P500/SPY. ALONG WITH TRADING STRATEGIES, (AT THE BOTTOM FOLLOWING MY CONCLUSION).

For Wednesday, 4/02/25. Price Action: SPY recently bounced off a low near the bottom Bollinger Band (~$550) and is now trying to reclaim the mid-band area around ~$570. Price action shows a potential short-term bottom with a mild relief rally forming. However, the series of lower highs and lower lows remains intact, meaning the broader trend is still down unless SPY breaks back above ~$590. Moving Averages: The 9-day SMA and 18-day SMA are sloping downward, confirming bearish momentum. SPY is currently trading below both of these short-term moving averages, which often acts as resistance unless broken. MACD: We have a bullish crossover in MACD and signal line below the zero line, a common sign of a short-term reversal brewing. The histogram is contracting toward zero, suggesting downside momentum is fading. RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI bounced from oversold territory (~30), currently hovering around 45. Not yet in bullish territory, but the upward slope is supportive of more near-term upside. Volume: No major spike in volume on the bounce yet, ideally, we’d like to see stronger accumulation volume to confirm buying interest. CONCLUSION. Short-term: Mildly bullish, looking for continuation of a rebound toward $580–$590. Medium-term: Still bearish bias unless SPY breaks and holds above the 18-day SMA and regains $590. Trade Suggestions (Using SPY): Aggressive Bullish Play (Short-term): Buy SPY 580 Calls expiring April 12. Conservative Bullish Play (Swing): Debit spread: Buy SPY 570 Call / Sell SPY 590 Call (April 19 expiration). Bearish Reversal Watch (if rally fails): If SPY stalls near $580 and rolls over, consider buying SPY 560 Puts with 2-week duration.

Technical breakdown of the USO (United States Oil Fund) with ways to trade it.

For Wednesday, 4/02/25. Price Action & Candlesticks. Trend: USO has bounced off its recent lows around the $70 area and is now approaching $76–$77. This looks like a continuation of a short-term uptrend within a broader correction. Candlesticks: Strong bullish candles have pushed USO back above the 9-day SMA and toward the 18-day SMA. This is constructive. Moving Averages (SMA 9 & SMA 18). We just got a bullish crossover, or it's forming, short-term SMA crossing over the intermediate SMA. This suggests momentum is shifting upward. Price is approaching the mid-range of the Bollinger Bands (near $78), which could act as near-term resistance. Bollinger Bands. Price is hugging the upper half of the band and expanding outward. This signals increasing volatility with upward bias. A close above the upper band would indicate overbought but could also be a breakout signal if volume confirms. MACD has crossed bullishly above its signal line and is heading upward, but still in slightly negative territory. Histogram turning positive is a confirmation of bullish momentum building. RSI is currently around 60, which is bullish but not overbought. Still has room to run toward the 70 mark. This supports the idea that upside potential remains. Volume has been fairly steady but muted. A breakout above $78 or $80 needs volume expansion to sustain momentum. CONCLUSION. Bullish Bias, with caution around the $78–$80 resistance area. Trade Suggestions Using USO or Crude Oil Proxies. Aggressive Bullish Play. Buy USO April $78 or $80 Calls (if breakout above $77.50 occurs). Safer Bullish Play. Buy USO and place a trailing stop at the 18-day SMA (~$73). Ride momentum as long as the trend remains intact. Options Spread (defined risk). Bull Call Spread: Buy April $76 Call / Sell April $82 Call. Limits upside but reduces cost—ideal if you think oil will climb but not explode higher. Crude Oil Futures Proxy. If you prefer futures exposure, look at CL (Crude Futures) or XLE (Energy ETF)—XLE is showing a similar bullish recovery and could benefit from oil strength.

Technical breakdown of GLD with trading strategies.

For Wednesday, 4/02/25. Price Action & Trend. Trend: Strong uptrend. The chart shows a clear and aggressive move upward, with prices pressing above the upper Bollinger Band. Price Location: GLD is currently trading near its highs, above both the 9-day and 18-day moving averages, showing strength and momentum. Bollinger Bands are expanding, this signals increasing volatility and strength in the current move. Price Position: The candle has closed outside the upper band, which can be a continuation sign, but it’s also worth watching for mean reversion or short-term cooling. MACD. Bullish Crossover: MACD line is above the signal line and rising again after a brief contraction. Histogram: Histogram has flipped positive and is growing, this supports bullish momentum. RSI. Current Level: RSI is hovering around 75–80. Interpretation: While technically overbought, in strong trends this can persist. Overbought doesn't mean reversal—it means strength, but caution is advised. Volume is elevating into the rally. That’s confirmation of interest and conviction behind the move. CONCLUSION. BULLISH, with a short-term caution flag due to overbought RSI and extension above Bollinger Band. The uptrend is intact and accelerating. No major reversal signs are visible yet. Trade Suggestions Using GLD or Options. Short-Term Trade (1–2 Weeks): Trade Idea: Momentum-based breakout continuation. Play: Buy the GLD Apr 19 $290 or $295 Calls. Medium-Term Swing (2–4 Weeks): Play: Buy GLD Apr 19 $285 Calls, deeper ITM for better delta and less decay. Conservative Trade (Pullback Buy): Wait for a retest of the 9-day moving average (~$278–$280). Enter long shares or options then, with tighter risk control. Final Thoughts This is a classic momentum setup in precious metals, GLD is mirroring strength in gold, likely being driven by global economic and geopolitical stress, currency debasement, and flight to safety.

Technical breakdown of Bitcoin and XRP with outlook projection.

For Wednesday, 4/02/25. Bitcoin. Technical Indicators: Support Levels: Key support is identified at $80,000. Resistance Levels: Resistance is noted at $88,000. Momentum: Short-term momentum has improved, potentially extending the rally for another week or two. However, intermediate-term momentum remains downward, increasing the risk of a fleeting rebound. Outlook: Cautiously bearish. While short-term indicators suggest a potential continuation of the recent relief rally, the prevailing intermediate-term downtrend and recent price action indicate a need for caution. XRP: Momentum: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 39.24, indicating neutral conditions. Outlook: Neutral to cautiously bearish. The recent price decline and technical indicators suggest potential for further downside, though current support levels may provide some stabilization.

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